Methodology for Determining Credit Risk Scenarios for Stress-Testing Mortgage Related Assets

The FHFA stress test is updated each quarter according to objective rules derived from fundamental economic relationships. These rules affect a dynamic adjustment to the severity of the stress test that accounts for current economic conditions, specifically the current level of house prices relative to the ongoing house price cycle. The stress test incorporates different house-price level (HPI) stress paths for each state, thus accounting for the fact that house price cycles can differ significantly from one state or region to another. The severity of the economic stress imposed by the test, as measured by the projected percentage drop in HPI, changes over time for each state corresponding to the deviation of current HPI from its long-run trend. As a result of this design, the FHFA stress test will produce countercyclical economic capital requirements, in that the estimates of potential losses on new mortgage loan originations increase during economic expansions, as current HPI rises above its long-term trend, and decrease during economic contractions, as current HPI falls to or below trend. The dynamic adjustment feature of the stress test allows that it will accommodate any size current house price cycle, even those of greater amplitude than any observed previously. Further, the severity of the stress test is calibrated to produce economic capital requirements that are sufficient, as of the day of origination, to fully capitalize the mortgage assets for the life of those assets.

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